The Animal Industry Has No Chance to Survive

Multiple economic time bombs are ticking.

Feb 19, 2024

Investing in the animal industry is one of the worst ideas you can have — not only for ethical reasons. Here is why 👇

Animal agriculture is in deep trouble.

The industry, recognized as “one of history’s worst crimes” for its devastating impacts on animals, humans, and the environment, now faces multiple existential threats itself.

The collapse of animal farming has never been clearer to foresee, as the industry grapples with the consequences of its own unsustainable practices — and other insurmountable challenges:

1) Plant-based products will become way cheaper

Contrary to widespread belief, a University of Oxford study analyzing food prices from 150 countries showed that switching to a vegan lifestyle reduces food costs — by up to 30%.

Price advantages for vegans will drastically increase in the coming years. Even vegan products that are currently more expensive (e.g., meat and dairy alternatives) will be way cheaper than their animal counterparts, much sooner than most people think.

Why are plant-based products becoming cheaper?

Overall, vegan products are cheaper because their production consumes significantly fewer resources, such as water, energy, and land. The following developments will further contribute to price reductions in the coming years:

Economies of scale. The vegan food market is one of the world’s fastest-growing industries and is predicted to double in size by 2027. Larger-scale production typically leads to significant cost savings.
Growing competition. More and more companies are launching plant-based products, intensifying competition in the vegan market. In a competitive market, prices are typically pushed down.
Covered R&D expenses. Launching new products requires extensive research, development, and testing. Once these expenses have been covered by incoming revenue, manufacturers can lower their prices. This will gradually happen for tens of thousands of vegan products that have been launched over the last years.

Price is a powerful motivator

Research shows that price is often the major factor influencing consumers’ purchase decisions. Soaring inflation rates and a looming economic downturn add to people’s frugality, making them more sensitive to price differences and price changes.

Once certain price thresholds have been undercut, we will witness a noticeable shift towards vegan alternatives even among individuals who have not previously considered adopting a vegan lifestyle.

What you can do: To accelerate price reductions, it is important to boost demand for vegan products. Test around and identify favorite brands you want to support.

2) The subsidies that keep animal agriculture alive will drop

Animal products are extremely inefficient to produce. For instance, you need around 100 calories of grain to produce 12 calories of chicken or 3 calories of beef. Livestock provides just 18% of calories but takes up 83% of farmland. A meat-based diet uses five times more water than a vegan diet.

Given its inefficiency, the animal industry would not be economically viable without huge amounts of government handouts:

In the US, about 30% of farm subsidies go to produce feed crops for dairy, eggs and meat, while only 4% go to fruits and vegetables.
The EU reportedly spends nearly a fifth of its budget on subsidizing livestock farming.
In the UK, around 90% of the profit of farmers who graze livestock, comes from agriculture subsidies.

A 2015 study from the University of California Berkeley estimated that one pound of hamburger meat would actually cost $30 without any government subsidies.

Additionally, animal products still receive significant tax advantages. In the EU, the disparity in VAT can range from as low as a 6% rate for cow’s milk to 23% for plant-based milks.

These disparities are unjustifiable, heavily distort competition in favor of animal-based products, and are not in line with climate protection goals.

Many companies, investors, and civil society organizations are pressing for a change in these policies. Even the United Nations are calling for the “repurposing of USD 470 billion of agricultural support that distorts prices, environment and social goals”.

In times of soaring inflation, raging wars, shrinking government budgets, and economic downturn, subsidies are coming under increasing scrutiny.

To avoid excessive state debt, ensure fair competition, and tackle the climate crisis, it becomes increasingly inevitable that subsidies will be questioned and adjusted.

What you can do: Inform the people around you and endorse existing initiatives pushing for tax and subsidies reforms.

3) Consumer attitudes are shifting

Many consumers are no longer turning a blind eye to the ethical implications of their choices. Animal welfare concerns, coupled with the environmental impact of industrial farming and corporate scandals, are driving a wave of conscientious consumers:

In the US, the number of vegans has increased 500% since 2014.
In the UK, the number of vegans has increased 370% in the past five years.
In Germany, around 500 people go vegan every day.

And these growth rates are further accelerating.

Study results indicate that veganism is the fastest-growing lifestyle movement in history. Veganism has also been recognized is “one of the fastest growing social justice movements in the world today”. Pointing in the same direction, the vegan diet market is expected to be the world’s fastest-growing industry by 2032.

The demand for plant-based products is skyrocketing, while US cow’s milk consumption is at an all-time low and Germany has announced a record low in meat consumption (per capita consumption rates of both countries are still among the highest worldwide).

Driven by developments in other parts of the world, especially in China, the global consumption of animal products is still rising. However, given our globalized economy, the trends summarized in this article will inevitably impact these markets as well — potentially with a small delay.

A growing number of organizations, vegan celebrities and award-winning documentaries collectively raise awareness on the horrors of the animal industry.

They inform people about the industry’s devastating impact on animals, exploited workers, public health, rainforest destruction, water and air pollution, climate change, species extinction, land grabbing, ocean dead zones, and world hunger.

Even the UN has urged a global shift towards a vegan diet to save the worlds from hunger, fuel poverty, and the worst impacts of climate change.

What you can do: Inform yourself and others on the negative impacts of the animal industry, honestly reflect your own consumption choices, and — if you have the capacities — become an advocate for veganism.

4) Vegan innovations will revolutionize the industry

The growing demand for vegan products has sparked a global innovation race.

Given the thriving ecosystem of over 800 vegan startups and a rapidly increasing number of vegan patents, it can be expected that the coming years will bring transformative advancements in areas such as vertical farming, lab-grown meat, and plant-based protein.

Sudden technological breakthroughs could lead to a rapid decrease in the cost of production — and to substantial improvements in the taste, texture, and overall appeal of vegan products.

Vegan innovations are not limited to plant-based burger patties and dairy alternatives, but include a broad range of products, from plant-based chicken, bacon, and fish to vegan beddings to cruelty-free clothing, cosmetics, and footwear.

Disruptive vegan innovations can lead to a sudden decline in demand for conventionally farmed animal products without prior warning — a serious financial risk for anyone who still invests in the deeply unethical animal industry.

Everything points towards a vegan future

In an article titled “History is clear: Innovation will remove animals from industrial systems”, food industry expert Bruce Friedrich writes:

“Every time we’ve innovated to take animals out of industrial systems, we’ve created an industry that is more stable and more profitable. The better, animal-free way becomes the status quo.”

This is exactly what will happen to the global food system — and other industries that still exploit animals. Experts and AI systems have predicted that animal flesh will completely vanish from super market shelves by 2040, that the US will be completely vegan by 2050, and that most of the world will be vegan by 2075.

What you can do: Stay up-to-date, try new products, and enjoy! Make sure to recommend your favorite vegan products to your friends.

5) Relevant regulations will be changed

As we all know, regulations tend to respond slowly to ethical and environmental concerns. We should never rely on policymakers alone to tackle existential threats and injustices.

The good news is: with or without regulatory changes, the environmental and economic benefits, as well as the efficiency of vegan products will inevitably prevail against the animal industry in the free market.

However, regulations have the potential to accelerate this process by ensuring fair competition and closing legal loopholes commonly exploited by the animal industry.

Considering current global developments, it is reasonable to expect that governments worldwide will gradually implement stricter regulations to protect the environment, improve animal welfare, combat climate change, and limit antibiotics use in livestock.

The animal industry is extremely damaging to public health, climate, and the environment — and is fundamentally based on the confinement, exploitation, and killing of sentient beings. Therefore, no regulation will ever make the industry sustainable or morally justifiable.

However, upcoming regulatory changes will render business operations for the animal industry more complex and costly. This will remove some of the unfair advantages created by subsidies and thus support the transition to a vegan society.

If the animal industry fails to meet new regulations (as is often the case with existing rules), it could face additional penalties, legal costs, and further deterioration in its public perception.

Key events, such as climate change-related disasters, zoonotic disease outbreaks in livestock, and animal cruelty scandals will continue to raise public concern and increase pressure on politicians to implement stricter regulations.

What you can do: To put pressure on policymakers, participate in relevant petitions and advocate for stricter regulation and oversight of the animal industry.

6) Demographics are shifting

Today, the vegan movement is predominantly driven by younger generations.

In a recent survey of UK adults, the highest percentage of vegans fell within the ages 18-49 (3-5%). Respondents aged over 50 were significantly less likely to be vegan (1-2%). In many other countries, including the US, France, and Germany, the age distribution is fairly similar.

A BBC poll looking at children’s eating habits even found that 8% of UK children aged 5-16 are already vegan, while another 15% would like to be.

Conversely, older people are responsible for the majority of animal product consumption. A recent US study found that only 12% of the county’s population consume half of all beef. People aged between 50-65 were most likely to be in this group of “disproportionate beef eaters”.

Of course, with the passage of time, younger generations will eventually replace older generations. The trends observed among the youth are much more predictive of the future than trends observed among those approaching (or already enjoying) retirement.

With reference to differing beef consumption across age groups, a WIRED article from last year was titled:

“A demographic time bomb is about to hit the beef industry”

That’s exactly right — but it isn’t only about beef. As the statistics above indicate, the mere passage of time will significantly increase the prevalence of veganism in general.

What you can do: Embrace the openness and ethical awareness of younger generations. Inspire, educate, and empower them on their journey towards plant-based living.

7) Feed and water supply are becoming scarce

The animal industry faces a critical challenge due to the inherent inefficiency of producing animal products, which demands massive amounts of grain, corn, soy, and fresh water.

For example, it takes about 100 calories of grain to produce just 12 calories of chicken or 3 calories worth of beef. The world’s cattle alone consume a quantity of food equal to the caloric needs of 8.7 billion people (which is more than the current world population.)

And while two out of every three people worldwide suffer from water scarcity, the production of one pound of beef uses as much water as a 135 days’ worth of showers.

In times of global food crises and escalating water scarcity, the wasteful animal industry becomes particularly problematic and vulnerable.

As the strain on resources intensifies due to wars and climate change, the animal industry faces growing ethical pressure. More and more organizations are rightfully asking why the consumed resources aren’t directly allocated to starving people, instead of being used for breeding an entirely unnatural number of livestock into the world.

Resource scarcity can even force farmers to suspend animal production, or to acquire resources at much higher cost, leading to an increase in their product prices.

Experts predict that climate-related cost rises will push half of the world’s livestock giants to an operating loss in 2030.

As vegan diets require significantly less agricultural yield to feed people directly, they will be less affected by these price shifts.

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